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feb
17
2016
10:00–12:00

Forskarseminarium

Richard Bradley: Confidence and probability. Climate change assessments and policy decision making

Dokumentation


Richard Bradley, professor vid Department of Philosophy, Logic and Scientific Method, London School of Economics and Political Science

ABSTRACT
The periodic assessment reports of  the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change use a novel framework for assessing and communicating scientific uncertainty. Not only are findings graded by probability but these probabilistic assessments are in turn graded on a metric of confidence. In this talk I will present this two-tiered uncertainty framework and consider how the judgements that it yields might inform policy decision making in a principled way.

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