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Feb
17
2016
10:00–12:00

Research Seminar

Richard Bradley: Confidence and probability. Climate change assessments and policy decision making

Documentation


Richard Bradley, professor at the Department of Philosophy, Logic and Scientific Method, London School of Economics and Political Science

ABSTRACT
The periodic assessment reports of  the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change use a novel framework for assessing and communicating scientific uncertainty. Not only are findings graded by probability but these probabilistic assessments are in turn graded on a metric of confidence. In this talk I will present this two-tiered uncertainty framework and consider how the judgements that it yields might inform policy decision making in a principled way.

Read more about Richard Bradley and see him talk about decision theory.

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