The Time of Perils and a World System of Governance

Institute for Futures Studies. Working paper 2025:1

Abstract

Extinction risk refers to the possibility of the extinction of the human species, and is the subject of a growing field of study. In this context, the time of perils hypothesis has had a prominent role. The time of perils hypothesis implies that human civilization finds itself in an era of elevated extinction risk, and that if it survives this era, extinction risk will be permanently and substantially reduced. This hypothesis is of considerable importance to the view that preventing extinction risks in the near future has an astronomical value in expectation. This view is motivated by the possibility of the existence of a vast number of happy individuals in the long-term future, and by the view that these possible future people matter. If the time of perils hypothesis is wrong, and extinction risk remains high for the foreseeable future, then human civilization is unlikely to be very long-lived, regardless of our actions.
   We present here an argument in favor of the time of perils hypothesis. We argue that, according to several prominent theories in the field of international relations (IR), humanity (absent an extinction event) is likely to be unified under a world system of governance. By a “world system of governance” (WSG), we mean a global set of institutions, norms and structures that can settle dis­putes, promote trust and cooperation, and reduce great power security compete­tion. We explore the most prominent theories in international relations, which include: realism, liberalism and constructivism, and how these theories propose the emergence of a global system of governance. We conclude that a WSG will, if it emerges, have a significant impact on reducing extinction risk, including risks from emerging technologies, biorisk and non-anthropogenic risks. This argument, linking IR theory to existential risk is, to our knowledge, novel and potentially significant in the context of ascertaining whether existential risk prevention has astronomical value in expectation due to the vast number of potential lives that could exist in the future.