Predicting the diffusion of artificial intelligence

A framework for predicting the spread of AI applications.

AI-technology will revolutionize our societies. But how? When? And how rapidly will change come? For policymakers and other actors in society this is uncharted territory. To understand the impact of AI we must first understand what AI applications will be used and by whom. The goal of the project is therefore to develop a framework with which we can predict the spread of AI applications. The researchers in the project will create a scientific base upon which qualified assessments about how AI will spread, can be made. This will make policymakers better equipped to make decisions concerning AI and society.

Specifically the project aim to:

  • develop and evaluate a methodological framework for predicting the spread of AI-applications in different demographics within the coming decade
  • apply this framework to compare the spread of a set of AI technologies and then identify which applications that are likely to spread the fastest
  • Identify applications where the social impact is likely to be large, and thus highlight areas in which proactive action is the most urgent - both in terms of limiting and enhancing spread

Better predictions about the spread of AI applications would enable society to take full advantage of AI’s
opportunities and to act proactively to mitigate its potential damages.



Principal Investigator

Pontus Strimling Associate Professor, Economics

Project members

Emma Engström PhD, Environmental Modeling, MSc Engineering Physics, BSc Political Economics, affiliated faculty at KTH, Royal Institute of Technology within Systems analysis and Economics


Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg's Foundation