The research is based primarily in physical climate science, but in addition it takes a unique interdisciplinary approach, and is designed to involve also philosophical and political science perspectives. Thereby the program fills a gap between natural and social science on the topic of deliberate climate intervention.
Aerosols are central to cloud formation, and with enhanced amounts of particles, clouds can have more smaller droplets and thereby greater reflectivity and greater cooling potential. This has given rise to the idea of intentional aerosol-induced cloud brightening: in areas where clouds are sensitive to aerosol perturbations, such as subtropical marine stratocumulus regions, brighter clouds could reduce the total amount of solar radiation absorbed by the Earth system, and thereby temporarily limit global warming.
Combining climate modelling with analysis of satellite data, we will utilize already occurring aerosol-variations as analogues for intentional modifications of cloud properties. We will investigate the requirements for a robust model-representation of MCB and its effects, and broaden the evidence base for risk assessment by studying interventions of varying magnitude, with different geographical distributions, and compared to different background scenarios. We will particularly focus on evaluating the planned reductions in warming against unintended side-effects on atmospheric circulation, and precipitation distribution. The governance analysis will explore the socio-political implications of the physical uncertainties, and the ethical perspectives will elucidate the frameworks that affect risk perception, and decision making under uncertainty.
The disciplinary approaches are not only complementary, but synergistic, and we expect our findings to lay out a more complete background against which the potential risks or benefits of MCB can be evaluated, providing a foundation for future societal decisions on strategies for climate change mitigation.
IFFS is a project partner in this project which is based at Stockholm University, where you will also find the project manager Frida Bender.
