The ability to predict future outcomes is a cornerstone of science. However, in the social sciences, such predictions are rarely made. This may be due to the complexity of social phenomena but also the lack of common frameworks for systematic testing and evaluation of predictions.
This research initiative aims to develop principles and methods for a more future-oriented social science. While perfect predictions are impossible, incremental improvements could provide substantial value for both research and policymaking. The project unfolds in two steps. First, Swedish researchers from various social science disciplines will identify key prediction targets and promising methodological approaches. Second, an international symposium will expand the perspective, bringing together leading scholars to contribute to a final report shared with the research community.
By establishing a framework for formulating, testing, and publicly sharing predictions, we aim to create the foundation for a more systematic predictive social science. This is a crucial step in enhancing the field’s relevance and impact in a rapidly changing world. Ultimately, the project serves as the basis for a future application for a more comprehensive research program on social science predictions.
