Sarnecki, Jerzy | 2026
Institutet för framtidsstudier. Arbetsrapport 2026:17
The text examines Sweden’s shift from Nordic penal exceptionalism—characterized by restrained imprisonment, short sentences, legal safeguards and rehabilitation—towards a markedly more repressive criminal policy. Since the mid-2010s, penalties and coercive powers have expanded, while rules concerning young offenders, repeat offending, conditional release and deportation have become stricter et al. The prison population is consequently projected to increase dramatically.
This transformation cannot primarily be explained by a general rise in crime. Sweden has experienced highly visible firearm violence linked to criminal networks, but lethal violence remains below its early-1990s level, while several forms of violence, acquisitive crime and youth offending have declined. Penal reforms have nevertheless continued after shootings began to decrease.
The principal explanation is political. The rise of the Sweden Democrats, their linkage of immigration with crime, and other parties’ reluctance to challenge punitive public opinion have driven the process. The development resembles US mass incarceration, where sentencing severity continued despite falling crime and was eventually constrained by its costs. Sweden may face major fiscal burdens, weakened families and communities, widening inequality, and declining trust in legal and democratic institutions. Whether costs will reverse this trajectory—and whether Sweden will return to Nordic exceptionalism—remains uncertain.
