Income and Inequality in the Aztec Empire. A Replication of Alfani and Carballo (Nature Human Behaviour, 2023)

Hammar, Olle | 2026

Journal of Comments and Replications in Economics, vol 5 (2026-14)

Abstract

Alfani and Carballo (2023) estimate income inequality in the Aztec Empire around 1492. Their preferred estimate gives a Gini index of 50.4. They conclude that inequality was high even before the Spanish conquest.

First, I confirm that the main outcomes are computationally reproducible from the analysis data provided in the replication package. Second, I examine two inconsistencies. Third, I test the robustness reproducibility of the relationship between population density and per capita income through eight different robustness tests, confirming a positive and statistically significant relationship but with considerable variation in the point estimates. Finally, I use these estimates as inputs for robustness measures of the main outcomes.

The results support the qualitative conclusion that inequality and extraction were substantial before the Spanish conquest. Their exact magnitudes, however, depend on modelling choices and should be interpreted as approximate historical estimates rather than precise measurements.

Read more >

Journal of Comments and Replications in Economics, vol 5 (2026-14)

Abstract

Alfani and Carballo (2023) estimate income inequality in the Aztec Empire around 1492. Their preferred estimate gives a Gini index of 50.4. They conclude that inequality was high even before the Spanish conquest.

First, I confirm that the main outcomes are computationally reproducible from the analysis data provided in the replication package. Second, I examine two inconsistencies. Third, I test the robustness reproducibility of the relationship between population density and per capita income through eight different robustness tests, confirming a positive and statistically significant relationship but with considerable variation in the point estimates. Finally, I use these estimates as inputs for robustness measures of the main outcomes.

The results support the qualitative conclusion that inequality and extraction were substantial before the Spanish conquest. Their exact magnitudes, however, depend on modelling choices and should be interpreted as approximate historical estimates rather than precise measurements.

Read more >