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Applying spatial regression to evaluate risk factors for microbiological contamination of urban groundwater sources in Juba, South Sudan
Hydrogeology Journal 25(4) pp. 1077-1091, doi: 10.1007/s10040-016-1504-x Abstract This study developed methodology for statistically assessing groundwater contamination mechanisms. It focused on microbiahumanitarian aid organisation Médecins Sans Frontières in 2010. The factors included hydrogeological settings, land use and socio-economic characteristics. The results showed that the residuals of a conventional probit regression model had a significant positive spatial autocorrelation (Moran’s I =3.05, I-stat = 9.28); therefore, a spatial model was developed that had better goodness-of-fit to the observations. The mostsignificant factor in this model (p-value 0.005) was the distance from a water source to the nearest Tukul area, an area with informal settlements that lack sanitation services. It is thus recommended that future remediation and monitoring efforts in the city be concentrated in such low-income regions. The spatial model differed from the conventional approach: in contrast with the latter case, lowland topography was not significant at the 5% level, as the p-value was 0.074 in the spatial model and 0.040 in the traditional model. This study showed that statistical risk-factor assessments of groundwater contamination need to consider spatial interactions when the water sources are located close to each other. Future studies might further investigate the cut-off distance that reflects spatial autocorrelation. Particularly, these results advise research on urban groundwater quality.
Gustaf Arrhenius more information
Current and Recent Projects The Mimir Institute for Long Term Futures Studies Climate Ethics and Future Generations Sustainable Population in the Time of Climate Change Anxieties of Democracy The Boundary
Göran Holmqvist
I have been a project researcher at the Institute for Futures Studies since January 2025 and work with migration-related research funded by DELMI, the Delegation for Migration Studies. My research con
The EU project Open Days: The AMIF Project "The Subjective Integration 2"
The purpose of this project is to give the migrants arriving via the organised channels, i.e. quota refugees and family reunion cases information about Sweden before leaving for Sweden. They are inte
Inherited Trust and the Economic Success of Second Generation Immigrants
Martin Ljunge, Institutet för Näringslivsforskning (IFN) ABSTRACTThe paper that will be presented finds significant private returns from trust. Individuals with high trust earn more. Greater trust lead
We welcome Jesper Strömbäck och Danica Kragic Jensfelt to our board
The Swedish government has appointed two new members to the board of the Institute for Futures Studies. The new members come with knowledge of robotics and experience from the government's Future Comm
