Explaining things with flow

This is a short presentation of what you can do with a software called Bayesian Dynamical Systems. It can be used to find patterns in large amounts of data and is the result of a cooperation between U

Delmi Policy Brief 2022:3. Abstract Three weeks after the Russian invasion of Ukraine more than three million people have fled the war. Knowledge and predictions on the flow of migrants are important for

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 80, Issue 8, October 2013, Pp. 1546–1556 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.02.002 Abstract Recent ‘democratic revolutions’ in Islamic countries

International Journal of Public Administration, Vol 40 (7), s 548-558 (2017) DOI:  http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01900692.2016.1157693 Abstract The article analyses the orientations of political employees in

in: Poetics AbstractPsychological dual-process theory has become increasingly popular among sociologists. The dual-process framework accounts for two types of thinking; a fast, associative, automatic o

How to solve the climate crisis together

This projects aims to solve ideological conflicts when it comes to climate politics, by suggesting climate work that aligns with the different ideologies' values.

Thomas Sterner, Professor of Environmental Economics, Dept of Economics, University of Gothenburg The Guardian recently decided to change house style and start using terms like Climate Crisis instead o

Working Paper 2016 no. 2(Published in International Journal of Public Administration, Vol 40 (7), pp 548-558  (2017) DOI:  http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01900692.2016.1157693) This paper analyses the orient

Jonathan Boston, Professor of Public Policy, School of Government, Victoria University of Wellington.ABSTRACTFundamental to good governance is the active anticipation, assessment and management of risBased on this analysis, the paper applies the concept to the policy challenges posed by climate change adaptation, particularly sea-level rise. In this regard, humanity is confronted with a slow-motion disaster that will grow progressively in scope and scale, sometimes abruptly. Societies will face significant uncertainty, multiple and compounding risks, immense costs and difficult intertemporal and intragenerational trade-offs. More specifically, rising sea levels will have a major and increasing impact on the built environment in coastal regions. Globally, hundreds of millions of people could be forced this century to relocate from areas at risk from coastal erosion and inundation, higher water tables, and more frequent and intense rainfall events. Mitigating some of the risks and increasing societal resilience via anticipatory, pro-active, prudent and adaptive policy responses will be politically challenging, not least because of the large upfront costs, the likelihood of powerful blocking coalitions, and the complexities of inter-governmental and inter-agency coordination. This paper outlines how, in the interests of sound anticipatory governance, these challenges might be addressed through the creation of new governmental institutions, funding mechanisms and revised planning processes.

Irina Vartanova, Kimmo Eriksson and Pontus Strimling at the Institute for Futures Studies have created a model to predict changes in moral opinion. –Ourmodel did considerably better than all known methPontus Strimling.