Institute for Futures Studies. Working paper 2025:1 Abstract Extinction risk refers to the possibility of the extinction of the human species, and is the subject of a growing field of study. In this con   We present here an argument in favor of the time of perils hypothesis. We argue that, according to several prominent theories in the field of international relations (IR), humanity (absent an extinction event) is likely to be unified under a world system of governance. By a “world system of governance” (WSG), we mean a global set of institutions, norms and structures that can settle dis­putes, promote trust and cooperation, and reduce great power security compete­tion. We explore the most prominent theories in international relations, which include: realism, liberalism and constructivism, and how these theories propose the emergence of a global system of governance. We conclude that a WSG will, if it emerges, have a significant impact on reducing extinction risk, including risks from emerging technologies, biorisk and non-anthropogenic risks. This argument, linking IR theory to existential risk is, to our knowledge, novel and potentially significant in the context of ascertaining whether existential risk prevention has astronomical value in expectation due to the vast number of potential lives that could exist in the future.                                                  

Philosophical Studies Abstract In a recent article in this journal, Eli Pitcovski puts forward a novel, explanation-based account of harm. We seek to show that Pitcovski’s account, and his arguments in

Philosophical Studies Abstract In her ground-breaking and highly influential book Transformative Experience, L.A. Paul makes two claims: (1) one cannot evaluate and compare certain experiential outcomes  evaluate and compare certain intuitively horrible outcomes (e.g. being eaten alive by sharks) as bad and worse than certain other outcomes even if one cannot grasp what these intuitively horrible outcomes are like. We argue that the conjunction of these two claims leads to an implausible discontinuity in the evaluability of outcomes. One implication of positing such a discontinuity is that evaluative comparisons of outcomes will not be proportionally sensitive to variation in the underlying features of these outcomes. This puts pressure on Paul to abandon either (1) or (2). But (1) is central to her view and (2) is very hard to deny. We call this the Shark Problem.

Reality minus minus - James Ladyman, Professor of Philosophy

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