predicts
New scientific model can predict moral and political development
Nature Human Behavior, one of the most influential social science journals, is now publishing a groundbreaking study from a Swedish team of researchers that answers several critical questions on how public opinion changes on moral issues, such as: How come today’s conservatives are more liberal than yesterday’s liberals? Why has the public opinion in large parts of the world shifted so rapidly in favor of gay and lesbian rights, but been virtually unchanged on other contested issues such as abortion rights? And is it possible to create a scientific model that can predict public opinion changes on moral issues?
Using Models to Predict Cultural Evolution From Emotional Selection Mechanisms
Emotion Review Abstract Cultural variants may spread by being more appealing, more memorable, or less offensive than other cultural variants. Empirical studies suggest that such “emotional selection” is
Predicting how US public opinion on moral issues will change from 2018 to 2020 and beyond
Royal Society Open Science, vol. 9, issue 4 Abstract The General Social Survey, conducted every 2 years, measures public opinion on a wide range of moral issues. The data from the 2020 survey are expect
Predicting Alcohol Misuse Among Australian 19-Year-Olds from Adolescent Drinking Trajectories
Substance Use & Misuse, doi.org/10.1080/10826084.2018.1517172. AbstractBackground: Alcohol use in adolescence predicts future alcohol misuse. However, the extent to which different patterns of adol This study investigated how adolescent trajectories of alcohol consumption during the school years predict alcohol misuse at age 19 years. Data were drawn from 707 students from Victoria, Australia, longitudinally followed for 7 years. Five alcohol use trajectories were identified based on the frequency of alcohol use from Grade 6 (age 12 years) to Grade 11 (age 17 years). At age 19 years, participants completed measures indicating Heavy Episodic Drinking (HED), dependency – Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) and social harms. At 19 years of age, 64% of participants reported HED, 42% high AUDIT scores (8+), and 23% social harms. Participants belonging to a steep escalator trajectory during adolescence had twice the odds at 19 years of age of high AUDIT scores and social harms, and three times greater odds of HED than participants whose alcohol use slowly increased. Stable moderate consumption was also associated with an increased risk of HED compared to slowly increasing use. Abstinence predicted a reduced likelihood of all forms of misuse at 19 years of age compared to slowly increased alcohol use. Trajectories of drinking frequency during adolescence predict alcohol misuse at age 19 years. Although rapid increasing use presents the greatest risk, even slowly increasing drinking predicts increased risk compared to abstinence. The findings indicate that alcohol policies should recommend nonuse and reduced frequency of use during adolescence.
The refinement paradox and cumulative cultural evolution: Complex products of collective improvement favor conformist outcomes, blind copying, and hyper-credulity
PLOS Computational Biology Abstract Social learning is common in nature, yet cumulative culture (where knowledge and technology increase in complexity and diversity over time) appears restricted to huma
Group differences in broadness of values may drive dynamics of public opinion on moral issues
Mathematical Social Sciences, 77, 1-8. Abstract Here we propose the idea that the success of an argument in favor of an issue position should depend on whether the argument resonates with the audience’s
Discontinuous and continuous stochastic choice and coordination in the lab
Journal of Economic Theory, vol. 206, 2022. Abstract We experimentally test theoretical predictions on equilibrium selection in a two-player coordination (investment) game. Through a minimal visual vari
Modeling the Evolution of Creoles
Language Dynamics and Change, 5(1), 1-51. DOI: 10.1163/22105832-00501005 Abstract Various theories have been proposed regarding the origin of creole languages. Describing a process where only the end res
Is conservative opposition to climate change threat-based? Articulating an integrated threat model of climate change attitudes
British Journal of Social Psychology Abstract Throughout the literature, there are assertions that those endorsing conservative ideologies reject the science and solutions of climate change due to perce
What's (not) underpinning ambivalent sexism?: Revisiting the roles of ideology, religiosity, personality, demographics, and men's facial hair in explaining hostile and benevolent sexism
Personality and Individual Differences, Volume: 122, pp. 29-37. doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2017.10.001 Abstract Ambivalent sexism is a two-dimensional framework that assesses sexist and misogynous attitudes