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Successful and failed episodes of democratization: conceptualization, identication, and description
Varieties of Democracy Institute: Working Paper No. 97. Abstract What explains successful democratization? This paper makes four contributions towards providing more sophisticated answers to this questishowing that while several established covariates are useful for predicting outcomes, none of them seem to explain the onset of a period of liberalization. Fourth, it illustrates how the identification of episodes makes it possible to study processes quantitatively using sequencing methods to detail the importance of the order of change for liberalization outcomes.
Episodes of Regime Transformation Dataset (v4.0) & Codebook. Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project
CODEBOOK and data documentation. Episodes of Regime Transformation (ERT) dataset Find the pdf-file here More information here
Cybercrime in Nordic countries: a scoping review on demographic, socioeconomic, and technological determinants
SN Social Sciences Abstract Knowledge of factors contributing to cybercrime threats is needed to plan effective prevention strategies to combat the increasingly common occurrence of cybercrime. This scon
What Future for Social Investment?
Institute for Futures Studies Research Report 2009/2, 101p. This report assesses the diversity feasibility, but also the relevance of the social investment strategy in Europe. What policies have been i
Applying spatial regression to evaluate risk factors for microbiological contamination of urban groundwater sources in Juba, South Sudan
Hydrogeology Journal 25(4) pp. 1077-1091, doi: 10.1007/s10040-016-1504-x Abstract This study developed methodology for statistically assessing groundwater contamination mechanisms. It focused on microbiahumanitarian aid organisation Médecins Sans Frontières in 2010. The factors included hydrogeological settings, land use and socio-economic characteristics. The results showed that the residuals of a conventional probit regression model had a significant positive spatial autocorrelation (Moran’s I =3.05, I-stat = 9.28); therefore, a spatial model was developed that had better goodness-of-fit to the observations. The mostsignificant factor in this model (p-value 0.005) was the distance from a water source to the nearest Tukul area, an area with informal settlements that lack sanitation services. It is thus recommended that future remediation and monitoring efforts in the city be concentrated in such low-income regions. The spatial model differed from the conventional approach: in contrast with the latter case, lowland topography was not significant at the 5% level, as the p-value was 0.074 in the spatial model and 0.040 in the traditional model. This study showed that statistical risk-factor assessments of groundwater contamination need to consider spatial interactions when the water sources are located close to each other. Future studies might further investigate the cut-off distance that reflects spatial autocorrelation. Particularly, these results advise research on urban groundwater quality.
The ethics of age limits
This informal workshop focuses on four papers dealing with a variety of ethical questions associated with the use of age limits, especially in health care. Time: Wednesday, November 23, 14:00 - 18:00Plac The Institute for Futures Studies (IFFS), Holländardgatan 13, Stockholm According to Jeff McMahan, we ought to save an individual, A, from dying as a young adult (e.g., at age 30) rather than save some other individual, B, from dying as a newborn, even if the latter intervention would give B twice as many years of full-quality life as the former intervention would give A. Call this claim . I argue that if we accept , then we must reject at least one of three other claims:
