Varieties of Democracy Institute: Working Paper No. 97. Abstract What explains successful democratization? This paper makes four contributions towards providing more sophisticated answers to this questishowing that while several established covariates are useful for predicting outcomes, none of them seem to explain the onset of a period of liberalization. Fourth, it illustrates how the identification of episodes makes it possible to study processes quantitatively using sequencing methods to detail the importance of the order of change for liberalization outcomes.

Political Science Research and Methods, 1-20 Abstract This paper introduces a new approach to the quantitative study of democratization. Building on the comparative case-study and large-N literature, it

CODEBOOK and data documentation. Episodes of Regime Transformation (ERT) dataset Find the pdf-file here More information here

2011. The Journal of the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law39:1- 93-99.

Substance Use & Misuse, doi.org/10.1080/10826084.2018.1517172. AbstractBackground: Alcohol use in adolescence predicts future alcohol misuse. However, the extent to which different patterns of adol This study investigated how adolescent trajectories of alcohol consumption during the school years predict alcohol misuse at age 19 years. Data were drawn from 707 students from Victoria, Australia, longitudinally followed for 7 years. Five alcohol use trajectories were identified based on the frequency of alcohol use from Grade 6 (age 12 years) to Grade 11 (age 17 years). At age 19 years, participants completed measures indicating Heavy Episodic Drinking (HED), dependency – Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) and social harms. At 19 years of age, 64% of participants reported HED, 42% high AUDIT scores (8+), and 23% social harms. Participants belonging to a steep escalator trajectory during adolescence had twice the odds at 19 years of age of high AUDIT scores and social harms, and three times greater odds of HED than participants whose alcohol use slowly increased. Stable moderate consumption was also associated with an increased risk of HED compared to slowly increasing use. Abstinence predicted a reduced likelihood of all forms of misuse at 19 years of age compared to slowly increased alcohol use. Trajectories of drinking frequency during adolescence predict alcohol misuse at age 19 years. Although rapid increasing use presents the greatest risk, even slowly increasing drinking predicts increased risk compared to abstinence. The findings indicate that alcohol policies should recommend nonuse and reduced frequency of use during adolescence.

Historian Adam Tooze is the guest in the second episode of The New World - a podcast from the Institute for Futures Studies and Aftonbladet Kultur.  Is the global response to the coronavirus outbreak a

British Journal of Political Science 52: 1465–1471 Abstract When authoritarian regimes liberalize, are there observable patterns in the ordering of reforms, and are these patterns distinct for cases that

Varieties of Democracy Institute: Working Paper No. 95. Abstract How does the order in which liberalization unfolds affect the likelihood for a successful democratic transition? Dahl was among the first

Patrik Lindenfors, Associate Professor of Zoological Ecology. Abstract What explains successful democratization? We present a suggestion for a new solution that identifies the discrete beginning of a li

Organization Studies, https://doi.org/10.1177/0170840619848014  Abstract In this paper, I study an epitomic case of institutional carriers of ideas: revolving door lobbyists. In a multi-directional interv