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28 May, 2025

Civil sector vulnerabilities and NATO's strategic role: The case for international governance

AI Policy Lab Abstract As AI becomes integral to critical civil sectors like healthcare, its governance can no longer be divorced from international security. This paper argues that NATO must play a str

Type of publication: Other | Tucker, Jason
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23 September, 2022

Belief Revision for Growing Awareness

Mind 130(520), 2021 Abstract The Bayesian maxim for rational learning could be described asconservative changefrom one probabilistic belief orcredencefunction to another in response to new information. ). But can this conservative-change maxim be extended to revising one’s credences in response to entertaining propositions or concepts of which one was previously unaware? The economists,) make a proposal in this spirit. Philosophers have adopted effectively the same rule: revision in response to growing awareness should not affect the relative probabilities of propositions in one’s ‘old’ epistemic state. The rule is compelling, but only under the assumptions that its advocates introduce. It is not a general requirement of rationality, or so we argue. We provide informal counterexamples. And we show that, when awareness grows, the boundary between one’s ‘old’ and ‘new’ epistemic commitments is blurred. Accordingly, there is no general notion of conservative change in this setting.

Type of publication: Journal articles | Stefánsson, H. Orri , Steele, Katie
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